Friday, 21 November 2008

A New Survey on the Future of the Stock Market

Every passing day seems to bring another gigantic drop in the Toronto Stock Exchange (along with every other stock market around the globe). A few weeks ago I thought things had reached bottom with the end of the panic selling in the terror phase. Now it seems we are in the despair phase.

Will the decline ever end? Was yesterday's 766 point 9% drop in the TSX the bottom? How much lower will it go? If you have an opinion click on the survey in the right column.

My own best guess is a bottom around 7500 or 50% off the peak, based on what other credit crises have done in the past. What's yours?


Astin said...

That's optimistic.

I once thought 7500 was a good bottom for the Dow, then 7000, now I'm thinking lower isn't out of the question.

TSX will be a couple hundred points above that.

Take a look at the commercial mortgage situation in the US. Combine that with the poor consumer numbers that are guaranteed during the key holiday season, and it's a second wave of mortgage problems in the new year. Canada might be in a better position, but if the US gets a cold...

Rob in Madrid said...

Markets always overshoot on the way up and again on the way down so I'd say this is simply a short pause on the way down.

I say this becuase come 2009 things will get alot worse. Rather suprisingly things don't seem to be too bad for the Canadian economy considering all the bad news south fo the border.

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