Tuesday, 24 January 2012

World Economy Trends from McKinsey: Long Slow Recovery in Progress

Consulting firm McKinsey Global Institute's Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth tells us that the recovery from the global credit crisis, three years later, has only just begun and will still take many years to complete. That's the bad news. The good news is that this is in line with past similar crises.

Canada used to be so much better off than the USA in terms of total debt but now things are fairly equal as Canadians have added debt while Americans have shed it. Amongst major economies, the USA is going fastest in the right direction according to McKinsey. Breaking the debt down by sector, another chart (Exhibit E4) shows that Canadian financial institutions have considerably more debt proportionally than those in the USA.

Exhibit A4, copied below from the long version of the report, shows that counting unfunded US government pension and health benefits for retirees pushes the US debt burden up to 140% of GDP. That still leaves it no worse in total than countries like Spain and France. The two countries by far in the worst overall debt shape, both of which have not even started deleveraging, are Japan and the UK, yet their borrowing costs are not at crisis levels. Huh?

Takeaways for investors: 1) Canadians should not be smug and should not count out the USA (you don't get to be number 1 for no reason); 2) Expect 3-4 years more of uneven weak economic times before things get much better though the "getting worse" phase seems to be finished; 3) Opportunities will arise for companies in infrastructure and public sector projects since governments won't be able to add more debt to build them; 4) Consumer demand won't be strong.

1 comment:

Christy said...

Well, to my opinion it’s extremely important that we can see some progress in recovering of the world economy. Of course we would like to see more fast recovery process but it is what it is. Economic times are still tough for lots of financial institutions across the world and it’s hard to take about any stability. Consumer debt is growing in many countries because people borrow cash to cover their expenses. Quality of living is quite low in many countries but things are slowly getting better and that’s the good news.

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