Friday 29 May 2009

Book Giveaway Winner and Reader Predictions for the Next Bubble

Congratulations to Jordan who won the draw for the free book The Cost of Capitalism (and if you did not see my note to send me an email with your name and address, this is a reminder).

Robert Barbera, the book's author believes that bubbles are an inevitable recurring part of our capitalist system. So I asked for opinions on what would likely be the next bubble. Here is the tally from the comments:
  • Green tech - 3 mentions
  • Infrastructure - 3
  • Water - 2
  • Food/rice - 2
  • Technology - 2 (again?!)
  • Health care, China, India, energy, alternative energy, the US Federal Reserve - 1 each
My own vote would go to green tech related to energy (into which I lump alternative energy) for these reasons: it sounds good, has a real basis and there is a strong need for it (just like the tech bubble was based on the powerful reality of the Internet and computing) which means people can believe in it but be fooled in the assessment of the value of individual companies; big money players like venture capitalists (the same ones who were instrumental in the tech bubble), pension funds, governments, mega-corporations, investment banks all have a strong incentive to create another bubble and are pouring large sums into it already; it's new and people will be able to say "this time it's different".

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